Wednesday, July 16, 2008

McCain Will Win

What to write in my first blog?? There are lots of possibilities, since I’m like most people and filled with opinions that crave validation. But there is one thing in particular I need to say because it is time-sensitive and I want it on record.


There. I said it. The liberal in me is saddened by the very thought. How could this possibly be? After all, hasn’t the American electorate demonstrated in repeated recent polling that it now repudiates the legacy of the buffoon they have twice elected? And surely the Democratic Party has learned from their mistakes of the past two Presidential campaigns, right?

I hope I’m wrong. My own views on many matters are very, very far from McCain’s – on the Iraq War specifically and American foreign policy in general – on issues of energy, environment, health care, education, abortion.


There are two forces that will give McCain an edge in the coming months. The first is that although many Americans reject G.W. Bush, they don’t reject the underlying conservative philosophy he represents. The proof of this will be in their positive response to campaign messages that stress militaristic strength, defense of the “homeland” against irrational and fanatic foes, and above all the sanctity of mainstream religious and ethnic values. In the psychology of Presidential Campaign strategy, Obama is very vulnerable on these issues.

The second force is more insidious but very powerful. Racism. America has progressed to the point where this will be subtle and hidden, but if the McCain campaign taps into the racial fears that are deeper and more widespread than we liberals like to believe, it will gain advantage over any message Obama may offer. We may have already seen the beginnings of this. Rumors of Obama being Muslim have been difficult to neutralize, partly because it is more socially acceptable to be anti-Muslim than anti-Black. In short, it allows voters to feel justified in their rejection of Obama on religious grounds, rather than admitting (even to themselves) that the real basis of their negativity is race.

Ok, I hope I’m proven wrong. Please, work hard to prove me wrong.


Richard Sherman said...

Obama is just finishing up his visit to the Middle East and Europe, among a feeding-frenzy of media coverage. He's been treated uniformly positively -- some have suggested TOO positively. Maybe, but it sure feels good to see folks in other countries actually applauding something American.....

My prediction still stands, but I admit it seems a bit less likely at the moment. We'll see if this golden glow will last.

Richard Sherman said...

My prediction that McCain will win the election still stands and is looking more likely than when I made it initially. His selection of Palin as a running mate was a brilliant stroke of campaign strategy and quite unexpected. It is also clear to me that the button-pushing strategy so successful for Bush is now being employed more and more by McCain’s campaign managers. Sad.

Coleen Hanna said...

Looking back at this post, I am glad you were wrong. I am one of those who still think Obama has been a good president. I had forgotten that the selection of Palin as VP was once seen as good strategy. Poor McCain probably wonders what kind of drug was slipped into his food the day he picked Palin.