Tax Tips in Troubled Times

Here We Go

Way back in 2011 I offered some tax tips to help people cope with the angst of filing season (see Tax Tips for Tea Time, 3/1/11).  That seems so long ago and so much has happened in the intervening 12 years that I thought I'd update my advice as we approach this year's deadline.  As noted in the title, this year we are dealing with this chore in the midst of a congressional melt-down over the debt ceiling, debates about lowering/increasing taxes for those who are financially challenged, raising/lowering taxes on the financially fortunate, cutting/increasing government spending on health, education, climate, and military programs, etc., etc., etc.. And since we now live in the age of confrontational, oppositional, post-factual, and post-civility politics, all this is at a volume almost guaranteed to land the average tax payer in scream therapy.

So, what's changed in the past 12 years? Rather than try to present a comprehensive and mind-numbing answer to that question, I'll focus on two aspects of taxes that seem most pertinent: refunds and effective (versus marginal) tax rates.

Refunds

Back in 2011, roughly 76% of tax payers got a refund averaging just under $3000.  That amounted to a total of about $319 billion, which was 34% of the total collected from individual returns. Even now, with inflation over the past 12 years, that's a LOT of money.  At that time, I pointed out that the "windfall" of a refund was actually just a return of people's own money, refunded to them after a year of it not being used for rent, medical bills, groceries, and occasional fun things.  I suggested that anyone in the group receiving $3k or more who believed that taxes were too high should have realized the contradiction of willingly over-paying taxes they thought were excessive on the one hand, and giving the government what amounted to an interest-free loan of $319 billion on the other.

So, what's changed in the last 12 years?  Not much, actually. According to IRS statistics for the intervening years, the average refund over the past 12 years has been about $2800 with the exception of a dip to $2549 for the Covid year 2020 and a rebound to $3252 in 2022. The variation in the average refund amount has been quite small, generally + or - about $250, and the percent of filers receiving refunds has been consistently about 75% , +/- 2%.  In short, most of us have continued to contribute generously to the interest-free government loan that averages about $320 billion each year.

There are two aspects of the yearly trend that have, indeed, shown changes.  First, the percent of returns being filed electronically has risen steadily from 77% in 2011 to 90% in 2022.  I suspect this reflects the growing incorporation of internet technology into many aspects of our increasingly online lives.  More evidence of this is the proportion of refunds that were electronically processed via direct deposit, which has grown from 72% in 2011 to 91% in 2022.  This can definitely speed up the refund process, since it is less reliant on human intervention and physical systems that require time and resources.  The IRS says that about 90% of refunds are issued within 3 weeks after a return is accepted.  However, the other 10% can take much longer, as I've personally experienced for the past couple of years. If there is something missing, incorrect, or if your return is selected for verification (as mine was this year) you will have to wait longer, maybe weeks or months longer (see Saving to Invest).  I submitted my return this year on Feb. 1, and received confirmation that it was "accepted" within a few hours.  My refund is much less than the average (I'm proud to say), but I'd still like to have it. It is now March 15 and my return is still "being processed," even after taking an extra step of providing validation information.

The main way to reduce your refund and keep more money in your pocket during the year is to adjust your withholding via Form W-4.  Another way, for those of us who make quarterly estimated payments, is to make these as accurate as possible, even adjusting them during the year if circumstances change.  Finally, for those who are required to make minimum withdrawals from an IRA, the percent you elect to be withheld can be changed with each withdrawal if necessary.

Although a tax refund can feel like a windfall, it most certainly isn't.  Some argue that overpaying forces them to save money during the year, and that they might not do so otherwise.  This may be true, but there is a hidden price for this forced savings.  Here's an idea that will accomplish the savings and even earn you some money.  Divide the usual amount of your refund by 12, then set up an automatic deposit of that amount each month into a bank savings account, kind of like a Christmas fund. On a specified date take the money plus interest and rejoice at your "refund!"

Marginal Versus Effective Tax Rates

A lot of confusion surrounds the question of how much we actually pay in income taxes.  The tax total in dollars is clear, but how that total is arrived at isn't.  An example of the confusion appeared in a Letter to the Editor recently published in my local newspaper.  The author bemoaned the high tax rate levied on those with incomes greater that $539,000, which placed them in the 37% tax bracket. This forced them, according to the writer, "to pay 37% of their incomes in taxes." 

The confusion here is between a taxpayer's marginal versus effective tax rate.  U.S. income taxes are "progressive," which means that income up to a certain point is taxed at given rate, and income above that level is taxed at a higher rate.  The rates for each increasing portion of a person's income are the marginal rates, the maximum of which was 37% for 2022.  But only the amount above $539,000 would be taxed at that rate -- the income up to that point would be taxed less.  Dividing a person's total tax bill by their total income yields the effective tax rate for that person, the true bottom line -- the proportion of their income that went to taxes.

The difference between the two rates can be dramatic, and a very strong case can be made that it is the effective rate that should be the focus of debates over whether income taxes are too high.  For example, Business Insider presents data for the 2020 tax brackets that shows for the most common bracket of 22% (incomes from $50k to $75k), the effective rate was 7.2%.  For the next most common bracket of 24% (incomes of $100k to $200k), the effective rate was 10%.**  A similar analysis by The College Insider indicated that using 2022 data, a person with an income of $60k (22% tax bracket) would have an effective rate of 9.9%. Finally, a Tax Foundation analysis of IRS data shows that the average effective rate for all taxpayers in 2020 was 13.6%.  For those in the 37% bracket (incomes greater than $539k, averaging $1.7 million) the average effective rate was 26%. 

Effective rates have not remained the same over the past 12 years, but the changes have been less than you might think. A highly-touted tax reform bill that was enacted in 2017 changed the marginal values and adjusted the income cutoffs for some rate brackets with the goal of lowering taxes.  This did indeed lower the effective tax rate for taxpayers in all income categories, as documented by the Tax Foundation.  But their data show that the magnitude of the effect was 1.5% or less for nearly all income categories for 2018-2020).  For the average taxpayer this amounts to a reduction of $250, and a reduction of $69 for those in the most common bracket (Business Insider).  Many people spend more than that in a year for mocha lattes.

Now, we can certainly argue whether the effective rates are too high (or too low), but at least we're focused on the right thing. So, one tip for 2023 is the same as it was in 2011:  concentrate on what your tax rate actually is, not misleading sound bites about marginal values. 

Bottom Line

In summary, I think there are two main points to be taken from the analyses above.

First, the promise of a refund is perhaps the only positive thing about filing your income taxes each year.  But it can't negate the fact that a refund is money that perhaps you shouldn't have parted with in the first place, and there is a hidden cost to what may seem like a "windfall."

Second, the question of how our tax bill is calculated is ambiguous enough to provide politicians with an abundance of opportunities for puffery and hyperbole. The bottom line provided by focusing on effective tax rates is a much more down-to-earth place to begin a discussion of raising or lowering the tax burden. 

Happy filing!

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*I've updated the figures from those given in my original blog using more recent data from the IRS archives.

** To calculate the effective rates the middle income in the tax bracket was used (e.g., $150k for the $100k-200k bracket), which was divided into the average tax paid by people in that bracket.