Watching The World From Cyberspace

Movietone News. Remember?  This was how many people got a chance to see images of current events before the days of T.V. news, YouTube, webcams, and smartphone video transmissions.  I remember as a kid going to a movie theater and before the feature film began watching a cartoon and then an episode of Movietone News.  I was fascinated by the filmed depictions of  people, places, and events that I had previously read or heard about.  The lag on these films was at least a couple of weeks, but it really didn't seem to matter -- things moved more slowly back in those days.

Fast forward to the last few weeks.  It would be hard to imagine a clearer illustration of how internet technology has changed the way we acquire knowledge of the world and the way we relate to people, places, and events than the role of technology in covering (a) the popular uprisings in the Middle East,  (b) the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and (c) closer to home, the sudden change in the ongoing eruption of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii.

Unlike the days of Movietone News,  from anywhere in the world you could watch the demonstrations and confrontations in Egypt live , as they were happening, thanks to webcams streaming video images to internet sites.   Or you could access YouTube clips uploaded minutes after events happened.  Interpreting the meaning of what you were seeing was perhaps problematic,  but there was nevertheless a feeling of immediacy that was unmistakeable, and a feeling of being connected  to the people in this far away place.  For those providing the images there was no doubt a feeling of connection as well, and also a feeling of empowerment and influence.

The video coming from Japan has been a stunning, near real-time display of the destructive power of nature and the fragility of human existence.  I've seen movies and still photos of tsunamis before, but the current depictions have had an effect on me at much higher level of magnitude.  I think this is due to the range of video sources, the immediacy of the images, and to their internet accessibility.  As with the popular uprisings in the Middle East,  my empathy seems stronger because the images are depicting the events right now, not as they were sometime in the past.

My third example is the role of internet technology in covering the recent change in the eruption of Kilauea Volcano, about 90 miles from where I live here on the island of Hawai'i.   The current eruption has been going on for over 20 years, but it has changed in character several times during that period.  For the past couple of years the main activity has been from a side vent of Kilauea, which feeds lava to a system of tubes that carry it several miles to the ocean.  Although the side vent is in a remote part of Volcanoes National Park and volcanic gases make hiking to it very dangerous, real time images of it have been available from a webcam placed on the rim of the vent.  A webcam is also positioned over the summit caldera in a spot accessible only to geologists, and until just recently the summit camera showed fascinating images of a lava lake just below the rim. 

These live views of an erupting volcano, available to anyone in the world with access to the internet, illustrate my point very nicely.  But even clearer is the role of internet technology in providing an immediate experience of the change in the eruption which happened a couple of weeks ago.  Suddenly all activity at the summit and the side vent ceased,  and lava began fountaining from a crack near the vent.  Within hours the geologists had placed additional cameras near the crack to provide spectacular views of the event.  In this case technology allowed a real-time experience of something happening that would be too dangerous and too difficult to observe in any other way.  Like the tsunami, witnessing this event via the internet deepened my appreciation of the power and unpredictability of nature in a way a Movietone News clip could never have done.

It is certainly debatable whether constant connectivity with events around  the world is a good thing in all cases.  But there is little doubt that this technology has irreversibly altered our relationship to each other and to the world around us.

Tax Tips for Tea Time

Ah, the joys of spring. Snow melting. Birds nesting. Flowers blooming. Warmth & sunshine. The promise of renewal, growth, and better times.

And getting your income tax refund.

The average refund is about $3,000.  Last year the total was $328 billion paid to 109,376,000 taxpayers, well over 50% of those filing. Note that this is more than 5 times the total budget cuts recently proposed by the Republican/Tea Party controlled House of Representatives. I find it a smidge interesting that those who regard themselves as fiscally astute and critical of government spending would be willing to give the government a $328 billion interest-free loan. As Roberton Williams, a senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center puts it,

"While the majority of Americans receive refunds and many taxpayers look forward to getting that check in the mail, it's sometimes easy to forget that it's your own money to begin with. All you did was overpay the government during the year. In one sense people like to get a refund because it's nice to know that refund is eventually coming -- they can file their taxes and not think about it again. But really, it's just an interest free loan to the government."

So tip number one if you're upset about taxes is don't overpay them by $328 billion! During the year that the Fed has your money interest free you could better use it to, say, pay your mortgage, buy food, or reduce your high-interest credit card debt.   By paying just the taxes actually owed and no more, the average taxpayer would have an extra  $250 available per month ($3000/12).  Of course, there would be no pseudo-windfall in April. But instead of giving the Fed an interest free loan, you could be avoiding paying  a high-interest loan yourself.

Tip #2: Become a CEO. Most have negotiated their contracts so that their taxes are paid by the company.

Tip#3: Become a witch. Actually, for some Tea Party members, like Christine O'Donnell, this wouldn't be much of a stretch. Although O'Donnell hasn't engaged in witchcraft since high school (according to Fox News), she could probably brush up in short order. Those tax-and-spenders in Congress could then be cursed and hexed into line, as witches in Romania did last January: "Everyone curses the taxman, but Romanian witches, angry about having to pay up for the first time, hurled poisonous mandrake into the Danube River on Thursday to cast spells on the president and government" (NYT).

Tip #4: Calculate your effective tax rate. This is very simple. Take your total income and divide it into your total tax bill.  You may find this is much lower than the marginal rate which gets higher as you have more income. People often forget that the higher rates don't apply to all of your income, only the portion that exceeds certain limits -- for most of us only a small chunk, if any, gets taxed at the higher rates. It is true, of course, that for CEO's in the U.S., who receive an average of $4 million per year in compensation, a much higher portion falls into the upper brackets. But see Tip #2.

Tip # 5: As you steam and burn at having to pay taxes that go to fund programs "X" and "Y," remember that there are some people who are quite happy to pay for those, but who don't want to pay for "W" and "Z," which just happen to be the only things you think government ought to be providing.....

Some Thoughts on Egypt's Revolution

The revolutionary events in Egypt over the past few weeks have been extraordinary in terms of their global repercussions. They also have implications for me personally -- the first demonstration in Cairo's Tahrir Square took place the day after my wife and I had put down a deposit for a week's tour of upper Egypt in May.

We've been in Egypt before. We visited about 30 years ago, shortly after the historic Camp David Accords had been signed. We remember the optimism and hopefulness of the people at that time, and the positive regard they had for the U.S., particularly for President Carter. We were treated very, very well during that trip, and it certainly was one of the best we have ever taken. Unfortunately for the Egyptan people, Anwar Sadat was assassinated not long after he signed the accords, and the reign of Mubarak snuffed out their optimism and hope for the future.

Our first visit to Eqypt was a great trip with one exception. We arrived in Cairo very tired and extremely jet-lagged. I think it was late in the afternoon, and we transferred to our hotel, a brand new Holiday Inn near the Great Pyramids of Giza where we stayed for a few nights before heading south. We were on a TWA tour which was very thorough, well organized, and which wasted no time in getting to the good stuff. Our first morning after arriving was to be one of the highlights of the trip -- visiting the Great Pyramids, the Sphinx, and some important sites outside of Cairo. Unfortunately our alarm failed to wake us at the appointed hour and the hotel wake-up call never came. We finally got a call from our tour leader asking if we weren't going to join the group for the day? We threw on some clothes and rushed to the waiting bus with only a few candy mints for breakfast, not even a cup of coffee. Needless to say, we can barely remember what we saw that day.

Our goal this year was to revisit some of those monuments, this time while wide awake, and also spend some time in historic Alexandria, which we did not see on the first trip. We scheduled this week in Eqypt at the end of a longer trip to Jordan & Syria -- note, no possibility of jet-lag while viewing the Sphinx! Also, rather than being on a lock-step group tour, we've arranged for a car, driver, and local guide to take us to those places on our own personal itinerary.

We haven't canceled any of our plans in Eqypt, nor in Jordan & Syria, and we won't unless it seems absolutely necessary.

When we describe this to people we get pretty strong reactions. Some are wide-eyed that we would even consider going to the Middle East at all, let alone after the recent developments. Others are very encouraging, and think that it would be an excellent time to visit these places, assuming some stability and lack of violence, because the people will once again be optimistic and hopeful. Given the economic dependence of many common citizens in these countries on tourism, they are likely to welcome visitors very warmly -- in fact, going ahead with our trip is perhaps the most direct way of helping people and showing support for them. Americans in particular should perhaps show support, given the democratic goals of the protestors. [Please feel free to weigh in on this with your own comments -- anonymously if you prefer.]

We'll see what happens in the next several weeks. We certainly live in interesting times, don't we?????

How to Compress Your Morbidity

Let's talk about dieing. I don't mean death itself, which has all kinds of philosophical and religious issues attached to it, but rather the physical and mental processes leading up to death, which involve more factual, scientific issues.

All of us will die and nobody knows exactly when. Despite the uncertainty as to the timing of death, most of us have an idealized model of how we want to die: continued high level of physical and mental functioning for as long as possible and then rapid decline just before the end. This period of decline in which we are infirm, diseased, disabled and/or demented is called morbidity, and we wish it to be as short as possible, followed by a quick and painless death.

About 30 years ago a gerontologist by the name of J.F. Fries proposed what he called "the compression of morbidity hypothesis." According to Fries, there are natural limits on how long humans can live, and improvements in health care, life style, and reductions in the effect of environmental risks are steadily progressing us to a maximum life expectancy, which he believed at the time was about 85 years. He proposed that the same factors that produce a longer life would also produce a "compression" of morbidity because they would lead to a lower incidence of chronic disease and a higher age of onset of chronic disease.

The compression of morbidity hypothesis is certainly attractive because it fits our idealized model of dieing, and it would be great if it were correct. Unfortunately the gerontological research over the last 30 years seems to indicate that Fries was wrong on two counts. First, life expectancy in at least one country (Japan) has now exceeded Fries' proposed limit of 85, and is still increasing almost linearly in most countries (Christensen et. al, 2009), though there is perhaps some leveling off in the U.S. (Crimmins & Beltrán-Sánchez, 2010):

Large declines in mortality rates in recent decades have translated into sizable increases in survival at older ages. For example, in the United States, the probability of a 65-year-old surviving to age 85 doubled between 1970 and 2005, from about 20% in 1970 to about 40% in 2005 (Bell & Miller, 2005). Similar or greater increases in survival at older ages have been reported in most developed countries among people aged 80 years or older since the 1970s (Kannisto, 1994, 1997; Vaupel, 1997). As life expectancy has increased, the modal age at death has steadily increased so that death in low-mortality countries most frequently occurs to people in their late 80s and 90s (Robine, 2010). Even death rates among people above age 100 have declined significantly in recent years leading to an increasing number of centenarians (Kannisto, Lauritsen, Thatcher, & Vaupel, 1994; Robine, Saito, & Jagger, 2003; Vaupel, 2010). This steady rise of life expectancy even at the oldest ages indicates that humans are not yet pushing up against a fixed limit, one that cannot be exceeded, which is a central tenet underpinning the compression of morbidity hypothesis." (Crimmins & Beltrán-Sánchez, 2010)

Although this may seem like good news -- we're living longer -- the data also show incidence of disease and disability has increased, not decreased in elderly populations, contrary to the compression of morbidity hypothesis (Christensen et. al, 2009; Crimmins & Beltrán-Sánchez, 2010). With respect to physical mobility problems, for example, data from the National Health Survey compared the percent of people in different age groups in 1998 and 2006 who reported being unable to perform at least one of the following: walking 1/4 mile, walking up 10 steps, standing or sitting for 2 hr, and standing, bending, or kneeling without using special equipment. The results show no support for a compression of this kind of morbidity:

For a number of other sources of morbidity, like cardiovascular disease, stroke & heart attack, diabetes, & cancer, the research comparing 1998 and 2006 indicates "There is no hint of a declining prevalence of disease over these eight years....The most striking change over the ten-year period is the increase in all the CVD conditions among older males; for females, the increase among the oldest group only occurs in the prevalence of stroke. Older men and women show an increased prevalence of cancer. Diabetes increases are seen through much of the adult age range" (Crimmins & Beltrán-Sánchez, 2010). Since mortality rates in older age groups have been decreasing during the same period, this means the number of survivors of these diseases has generally increased, often with decreased functioning associated with the management of the disease.

Now that you're suitably depressed, let me point out that the studies reviewed above deal with population trends and don't negate the possibility of individual factors that might contribute to compression of morbidity. Indeed, there is data showing that life-style choices (diet, exercise, weight control, preventative health-care, etc.) may compress morbidity for specific individuals, though more studies along this line are needed to be more definitive. In one study, 418 people were followed over 12 years (1986-1998) in terms of how their lifestyles (smoking, exercise, weight) related to morbidity patterns. Those with healthier lifestyles showed either a slight increase in morbidity over time with no acceleration of disability before death, or only a brief period of accelerated morbidity before death (Hubert, et. al., 2002), consistent with the idea of morbidity compression. In short, it is certainly possible to have some degree of control over your own individual morbidity pattern.

Another more optimistic point is that even if we must live with disease or disability in our later years, there are more ameliorative resources available all the time. As Christensen et. al. (2009) have noted, the rising use of assistive technology and improvements in housing standards, public transport, accessibility of buildings, changes in social policies, shifting gender roles, and the social perception of disability may loosen the link between disease and functional limitation of disability. Of course, these things are somewhat dependent upon governmental policy and therefore the political climate. Given our current health care debates in the U.S. we may find ourselves well behind other developed countries in offering preventive and ameliorative resources.


References

Christensen, K., Doblhammer, G., Rau, R.Vaupel, J.W.(2009). Ageing populations: the challenges ahead. Lancet. 2009 October 3; 374(9696): 1196–1208

Crimmins, E.M., & Beltrán-Sánchez, H. (2010). Mortality and morbidity trends: is there compression of morbidity? Journal of Gerontology: Social Sciences, 66B(1), 75–86.

Fries, J. F. (1980). Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. New England Journal of Medicine, 303, 1369–1370.

Hubert HB, Bloch DA, Oehlert JW, Fries JF. (2002) Lifestyle habits and compression of morbidity. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2002 Jun;57(6):M347-51.

Crosshairs and Causality

The January 8th shooting in Tuscon Arizona of Representative Gabrielle Giffords has grabbed the nation's attention in a big way. Predictably, pundits are punditing, politicians are politicizing, and academics (like me) are academizing as to the cause and meaning of this tragic event.

Mass shootings are sadly not new to us, but they still evoke horror and revulsion. And this one has an added impact because of its political context. I think much of the social turmoil in the wake of the shooting can be seen as a desperate effort to cope with the uncertainty and unpredictability it represents. The threat that horrific unexpected events pose to our understanding of the world around us is one of the most unpleasant of human emotions, and we go to great lengths to reduce it, sometimes by adopting simplistic causal theories that we believe can explain away the event's initial incomprehensibility.

The causal theories we adopt are likely to be those that are in line with our general world view, and also that serve specific psychological functions for us. The January 8th shooting occurred in a climate of political rhetoric that has become increasingly vitriolic, and some have suggested this as the primary cause. Others, particularly those who have been noted for using such language (like Sarah Palin) have vigorously rejected rhetoric as a cause and instead label the shooter's behavior as simply "insane," or "crazy," thereby absolving anyone of culpability.

The cultural and psychological context of causal theories becomes particularly apparent when you look at the way the Giffords shooting has been reported in the foreign media. Analysis of world media coverage by The Global Post, found that "Many commenters in the foreign press around the world said they were little surprised given America's lax gun laws and recent history of mass shootings. Still other media outlets ignored the American tragedy entirely. For example, in Europe the story has generally been covered much less than in the U.S. According to the Global Post's Michael Goldfarb, "The French press is consumed by the murder of two Frenchmen murdered in Niger by an African subsidiary of Al Qaeda. The German press has major flooding along the Rhine to contend with. But the lack of prominence given to the story could be down to this: For many in Europe, violence of the sort that occurred in Tucson on Saturday is almost expected in America." Ouch.

In other parts of the world the media reflected on the meaning of the event in terms of their own social dynamics. Global Post correspondents Erik German and Solana Pyne noted that in Latin America, "Lima’s El Comercio, Peru’s biggest newspaper, published a profile of Daniel Hernandez, the young Gifford staffer who held a bandage over the Congresswoman’s wounds before paramedics arrived on the scene. The “Hispanic angel,” El Commercio wrote, “saved the life of congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.” As to causal analyses, Argentina’s biggest daily, Clarin, published a 500-word piece by their Washington correspondent, Ana Baron, who focused heavily on Arizona’s tough stance on Latino immigration and what she described as the “growth of hatred and intolerance in U.S. politics.”

These examples illustrate (a) how the emotional impact of an event is moderated by the personal and culture context in which it is perceived, (b) the motivated nature of causal analysis, and (c) how simplistic explanations can satisfy our yearning for clarity and understanding. But the true situation is most certainly far more complex and not amenable to sound bites. One of my favorite columnists (E.J. Dionne) has as usual offered what I regard as an astute insight into these things and I'll close this blog with his words:

It is not partisan to observe that there are cycles to violent rhetoric in our politics. In the late 1960s, violent talk (and sometimes violence itself) was more common on the far left. But since President Obama's election, it is incontestable that significant parts of the American far right have adopted a language of revolutionary violence in the name of overthrowing "tyranny."

It is Obama's opponents who carried guns to his speeches and cited Jefferson's line that the tree of liberty "must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

It was Sharron Angle, the Republican candidate against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada, who spoke of "Second Amendment remedies." And, yes, it was Palin who put those gun sights over the districts of the Democrats she was trying to defeat, including Giffords.

The point is not to "blame" American conservatism for the actions of a possibly deranged man, especially since the views of Jared Lee Loughner seem so thoroughly confused. But we must now insist with more force than ever that threats of violence no less than violence itself are antithetical to democracy. Violent talk and playacting cannot be part of our political routine. It is not cute or amusing to put crosshairs over a congressional district.

Liberals were rightly pressed in the 1960s to condemn violence on the left. Now, conservative leaders must take on their fringe when it uses language that intimates threats of bloodshed. That means more than just highly general statements praising civility.

Thoughts for a New Year

The year 2011 marks the beginning of the second decade of my retirement. A good time for some reflection and prognostication. ** [Warning: This may get a little boring, so feel free to go do something more interesting, like sorting your socks.]**

My wife and I retired in 2000 at age 55. Such a young retirement age may seem almost hopelessly unattainable for most people in the current economic climate, but conditions were much better then. We were fortunate to be able to finance our retirement through a combination of prudent savings, conservative investing, and 30+ years of contributions to a state teachers' pension plan. Oh, and we didn't have kids.

Looking back at these last ten years, I have to say that on the whole they have been really, really, good. In analyzing the reasons I feel so positive about this past decade, I've of course relied on my psychological training and my ability as a university professor to concoct an answer to any question whatsoever, regardless of whether I know what I'm talking about.

Retirement is an exercise in existential angst management second only to being a teenager (well, and for men maybe a Mid-Life Crisis). These times confront you with fearsome challenges to define your values and  goals, and to set a life course that will have a major impact on your emotional, social, and psychological well-being. The problem in both cases is that there is really no road map or set of guidelines to follow, and this lack of clarity can be quite scary.

Sure, you can make plans to do X or Y, as people often do when they retire: "I'm going to start a new business;" "I want to play every Robert Trent Jones course in the world;" I want to sail the South Pacific; "I'm going to buy an RV and travel;" "I'm going to learn Sanskrit;" "I'll clean out my garage." But having a plan doesn't really address the angst issue, even though it makes you feel like you've got everything under control. The truth is that over the past ten years, and indeed over the previous 55 years, the best experiences I've had were (a) unplanned and (b) unexpected.

Retirement has forced me to confront issues of what and who I am -- issues that I thought I had resolved during my career. In fact I now realize just how much my career was a defining structure that provided answers to these questions and gave my life meaning and purpose. When retirement removed that structure I had to confront the questions anew.  And since we moved away from the academic environment to a completely different cultural setting, I didn't even have the old social situations and institutions to ease the existential burden.

So, what I have learned, and why has it made me happy? Here's a partial list:

• Existential questions probably don't have final answers.  When you accept this, continuing to ask them and to explore temporary answers can actually be very satisfying and even fun.
• Learning new things and learning more about old things is a vital source of  my happiness, and learning can occur at any time and in any place if you let it.
• If you look closely at something, you will often find an amazing world in the details.
• Worrying is truly a waste of time that could be better spent doing something that enhances happiness.
• The qualities of people and things that we think make us happy or unhappy are not inherent in them.  Happiness isn't caused by people or things, but rather by our reactions to them.
• Compassion is the best antidote for anger.  And of course, you can't be happy and angry at the same time.

 See you in another ten years.

Bankers' Math -- Part Cinq

My wife and I just returned from a delightful month traveling in Argentina. One thing we discovered that was not so delightful is that Bankers in Argentina are just as bad as everywhere else, particularly in how much they control people's access to their own money and how they profit from routine transactions.

We found that small merchants in Argentina prefer cash over credit cards as payment -- this saves them paying the credit card companies a percentage for each transaction and fees for maintaining a credit processing account. Many of the restaurants and hotels we stayed in were managed by the owners themselves. These operations usually have a small profit margin, so giving 2-4% to a credit card company can really hurt. There is also a certain ... uh, shall we say "flexibility" in reporting cash transactions for tax purposes. Several of our hotels would not accept credit cards at all, and others offered discounts up to 10% for paying in cash. The same was true in many restaurants. I should note that this practice is not confined to Argentina -- we've encountered it with increasing frequency in other countries as well, for example in Belgium and France when we were traveling there a year ago and in Greece this past June. And we've found that it isn't restricted to mom-and-pop retail operations -- even Government-run museums and cultural sites in these countries increasingly refuse credit or debit cards.

The bottom line is that we need cash as we travel. In the old days that meant carrying a wad of traveler's checks (parents, you might have to explain to your kids what these are) and then regularly cashing them at intervals at some bank or currency exchange office, often a time-consuming process. These days traveler's checks are the most expensive and inconvenient way to get cash and we don't carry them any more, or we may take just a small amount as emergency backup funds.

ATM's (MSM's -- "money spitting machines," as we call them) are now the primary way for travelers to get foreign currency, even in the poorest and least developed countries. Of course, both the local bank and your own bank will charge you a fee for each transaction, and these fees have gone up considerably in the last year or so. As I wrote in Bankers' Math, Part Quatre , my bank here in Hawaii, First Hawaiian, recently doubled their fee for a foreign ATM withdrawal to $5.00 per transaction, presumably because the cost of electrons has skyrocketed. To our great irritation we found that all the banks in Argentina charge about $4.00 per ATM transaction, so potentially a traveler in Argentina will pay $9 every time he or she gets money! If you get $100 worth of pesos, that's a 9% surcharge -- rather exorbitant in my humble opinion.

One way to counter this is to withdraw as much as you can. For example, if you take out $500 in foreign currency, the fees will amount to just 1.8% of the transaction, and you will also reduce the number of withdrawals you'll need to make during the trip, lowering the total amount spent in fees.

Ah, but the banker's are on to this strategy!!! They limit the maximum amount of a transaction, and it is clearly to their advantage to keep it low so that you will have to visit the MSM more often. By the way, it isn't your bank that places this limit -- it is the bank that owns the ATM. On our recent trips to Europe and Greece we were able to withdraw $400-500 routinely. However, in Argentina we were limited to $250 at every bank we tried, which amounts to a charge of 3.6%, slightly worse than a credit card fee (as explained below, we do have a strategy for getting around this, but it isn't available to everyone). I wouldn't be surprised if lower limits and higher fees have also been instituted in Europe, but I don't know for sure.

Bankers' Math: lower limits + higher fees = more profit for us!

My wife and I are fortunate enough to qualify for an ATM card from our retirement investment company (Vanguard) that waives the transaction fee, and we also have obtained a Capital One credit card that does not assess foreign transaction fees. For the time being, then, we have held our own against these forms of Bankers' Math. However, our advantages here may be lost at any time because they are under control of .... you guessed it.... Bankers.