[Note: This is another blog based on my weekly emails to my family on the mainland.]
Makalei Fan Gallery |
"...there is no more perfect form of subjection than the one that preserves the appearance of freedom." -- Rousseau
[Note: This is another blog based on my weekly emails to my family on the mainland.]
Makalei Fan Gallery |
Here We Go |
So, what's changed in the past 12 years? Rather than try to present a comprehensive and mind-numbing answer to that question, I'll focus on two aspects of taxes that seem most pertinent: refunds and effective (versus marginal) tax rates.
Refunds
Back in 2011, roughly 76% of tax payers got a refund averaging just under $3000. That amounted to a total of about $319 billion, which was 34% of the total collected from individual returns. Even now, with inflation over the past 12 years, that's a LOT of money. At that time, I pointed out that the "windfall" of a refund was actually just a return of people's own money, refunded to them after a year of it not being used for rent, medical bills, groceries, and occasional fun things. I suggested that anyone in the group receiving $3k or more who believed that taxes were too high should have realized the contradiction of willingly over-paying taxes they thought were excessive on the one hand, and giving the government what amounted to an interest-free loan of $319 billion on the other.
So, what's changed in the last 12 years? Not much, actually. According to IRS statistics for the intervening years, the average refund over the past 12 years has been about $2800 with the exception of a dip to $2549 for the Covid year 2020 and a rebound to $3252 in 2022. The variation in the average refund amount has been quite small, generally + or - about $250, and the percent of filers receiving refunds has been consistently about 75% , +/- 2%. In short, most of us have continued to contribute generously to the interest-free government loan that averages about $320 billion each year.
There are two aspects of the yearly trend that have, indeed, shown changes. First, the percent of returns being filed electronically has risen steadily from 77% in 2011 to 90% in 2022. I suspect this reflects the growing incorporation of internet technology into many aspects of our increasingly online lives. More evidence of this is the proportion of refunds that were electronically processed via direct deposit, which has grown from 72% in 2011 to 91% in 2022. This can definitely speed up the refund process, since it is less reliant on human intervention and physical systems that require time and resources. The IRS says that about 90% of refunds are issued within 3 weeks after a return is accepted. However, the other 10% can take much longer, as I've personally experienced for the past couple of years. If there is something missing, incorrect, or if your return is selected for verification (as mine was this year) you will have to wait longer, maybe weeks or months longer (see Saving to Invest). I submitted my return this year on Feb. 1, and received confirmation that it was "accepted" within a few hours. My refund is much less than the average (I'm proud to say), but I'd still like to have it. It is now March 15 and my return is still "being processed," even after taking an extra step of providing validation information.
The main way to reduce your refund and keep more money in your pocket during the year is to adjust your withholding via Form W-4. Another way, for those of us who make quarterly estimated payments, is to make these as accurate as possible, even adjusting them during the year if circumstances change. Finally, for those who are required to make minimum withdrawals from an IRA, the percent you elect to be withheld can be changed with each withdrawal if necessary.
Although a tax refund can feel like a windfall, it most certainly isn't. Some argue that overpaying forces them to save money during the year, and that they might not do so otherwise. This may be true, but there is a hidden price for this forced savings. Here's an idea that will accomplish the savings and even earn you some money. Divide the usual amount of your refund by 12, then set up an automatic deposit of that amount each month into a bank savings account, kind of like a Christmas fund. On a specified date take the money plus interest and rejoice at your "refund!"
Marginal Versus Effective Tax Rates
A lot of confusion surrounds the question of how much we actually pay in income taxes. The tax total in dollars is clear, but how that total is arrived at isn't. An example of the confusion appeared in a Letter to the Editor recently published in my local newspaper. The author bemoaned the high tax rate levied on those with incomes greater that $539,000, which placed them in the 37% tax bracket. This forced them, according to the writer, "to pay 37% of their incomes in taxes."
The confusion here is between a taxpayer's marginal versus effective tax rate. U.S. income taxes are "progressive," which means that income up to a certain point is taxed at given rate, and income above that level is taxed at a higher rate. The rates for each increasing portion of a person's income are the marginal rates, the maximum of which was 37% for 2022. But only the amount above $539,000 would be taxed at that rate -- the income up to that point would be taxed less. Dividing a person's total tax bill by their total income yields the effective tax rate for that person, the true bottom line -- the proportion of their income that went to taxes.
The difference between the two rates can be dramatic, and a very strong case can be made that it is the effective rate that should be the focus of debates over whether income taxes are too high. For example, Business Insider presents data for the 2020 tax brackets that shows for the most common bracket of 22% (incomes from $50k to $75k), the effective rate was 7.2%. For the next most common bracket of 24% (incomes of $100k to $200k), the effective rate was 10%.** A similar analysis by The College Insider indicated that using 2022 data, a person with an income of $60k (22% tax bracket) would have an effective rate of 9.9%. Finally, a Tax Foundation analysis of IRS data shows that the average effective rate for all taxpayers in 2020 was 13.6%. For those in the 37% bracket (incomes greater than $539k, averaging $1.7 million) the average effective rate was 26%.
Effective rates have not remained the same over the past 12 years, but the changes have been less than you might think. A highly-touted tax reform bill that was enacted in 2017 changed the marginal values and adjusted the income cutoffs for some rate brackets with the goal of lowering taxes. This did indeed lower the effective tax rate for taxpayers in all income categories, as documented by the Tax Foundation. But their data show that the magnitude of the effect was 1.5% or less for nearly all income categories for 2018-2020). For the average taxpayer this amounts to a reduction of $250, and a reduction of $69 for those in the most common bracket (Business Insider). Many people spend more than that in a year for mocha lattes.
Now, we can certainly argue whether the effective rates are too high (or too low), but at least we're focused on the right thing. So, one tip for 2023 is the same as it was in 2011: concentrate on what your tax rate actually is, not misleading sound bites about marginal values.
Bottom Line
In summary, I think there are two main points to be taken from the analyses above.
First, the promise of a refund is perhaps the only positive thing about filing your income taxes each year. But it can't negate the fact that a refund is money that perhaps you shouldn't have parted with in the first place, and there is a hidden cost to what may seem like a "windfall."
Second, the question of how our tax bill is calculated is ambiguous enough to provide politicians with an abundance of opportunities for puffery and hyperbole. The bottom line provided by focusing on effective tax rates is a much more down-to-earth place to begin a discussion of raising or lowering the tax burden.
Happy filing!
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*I've updated the figures from those given in my original blog using more recent data from the IRS archives.
** To calculate the effective rates the middle income in the tax bracket was used (e.g., $150k for the $100k-200k bracket), which was divided into the average tax paid by people in that bracket.
[Note: This is another blog based on my weekly emails to my family on the mainland.]
Spot the Ball |
Glad it fell That Way! |
[Note: This is another blog based on my weekly emails to my family on the mainland.]
2/25/23
Aloha Snow Shovelers!
Well, what can I say...mainland weather in many parts of the country has been a bit of a challenge this winter, right? This past week seemed like a doozy, with record snowfalls, millions of homes without power, and transportation grinding to a halt. And this is still February!
Our wet weather of last week continued at a lower level this week, and although it was less that ideal for
Mauna Kea Summit |
Mauna Loa Summit |
I started using the steroid cream for my leg thingy, but stopped when I read the package insert that warned of glaucoma and cataracts as possible side effects. It turns out that steroids can raise eye pressure, something that is definitely bad, particularly for someone like me who already has glaucoma. Hmmmm. Let's consider this -- a choice between smooth skin or eyesight. My dermatologist hadn't known of my glaucoma when she prescribed the cream, and to be fair the amount I'm using is quite small and only for a short time, so even if she had known she might have still recommended it. Anyway, I'm going to delay using the cream until next week, which will be closer to my next appointment with my Eye Guy. That way if my pressures increase we'll know it fairly quickly and can either stop the cream or increase my eye drops. Medication issues are definitely a geezer preoccupation. Isn't this fun??!!
Karen and I worked out at PF on Tuesday and played golf on Thursday, though we got rained out after 11 holes. A puzzle this week was the return of the Nenes. We saw about 25 of them, including two sets of three large babies. We had thought the Nenes had left after a couple of weeks without seeing any, but apparently they decided to return, and it isn't clear why. Anyway, it was good to see them, and particularly to see more babies.
Unfortunately for our exercise routine, the pool temp is still recovering from last week's rain and cloudiness and has been below our acceptable level. Hopefully it will climb back enough in a day or two to allow our daily water exercise.
Ok, that's it. Off to market and to the beach. Stay warm, keep shoveling, don't listen to the crazies.
[Note: This is another blog based on my weekly emails to my family on the mainland.]
2/18/23
Aloha Snow Bunnies!
This was an "interesting" week. It started with Super Bowl Sunday, of course -- the most mega, most lollapalooza-ish, hugest, most gargantuan, superduperist football game in the history of the universe. I didn't watch a minute of it. Well, except for some of the commercials, which I saw on YouTube. I really think this game is over-hyped in an already over-hyped sport, and I have very little interest in who wins. Don't get me wrong -- I do like certain team sports and several individual sports, too. But professional American football is just not for me.
Instead of being glued to our t.v., we drove up to Waimea and enjoyed a very nice late lunch with friends from Ohio (now living in Wisconsin) and their daughter, who is a teacher at the Hawai'i Preparatory Academy. Her parents are visiting for most of the winter, staying in her apartment on campus. One of the best things about driving to Waimea was that there was almost NO traffic. If we hadn't joined them for lunch, our usual SB Sunday activity is to go to Costco -- no lines at the checkout!
Next up was Valentine's Day. I kept it low key this year by treating Karen to a session at Planet Fitness followed by a romantic lunch at .... Taco Bell. Hey, do I know how to charm the ladies, or what?!
On Wednesday I went to my dermatologist for my yearly checkup. Overall things were good, except for the thing that is growing on my thigh. It has been removed twice, and each time it's come back bigger and badder. The second time it was removed the biopsy identified it as a squamous cell carcinoma. The treatment (removal, plus cauterizing and scraping) often takes care of this type of nasty, but it seemed like it came back again. However, the dermatologist (actually, her PA) was puzzled this time because it didn't fit the usual characteristics of squamous cell carcinoma. She took a sample and sent it for analysis. She called yesterday afternoon with the biopsy results, which identified it as non-malignant (whew!) "somethingsomethingsomethingelse hypersensitive tissue" where the tumor was removed. The treatment is to apply a special steroid cream and cover the spot for two weeks to get it to heal properly. If that doesn't work we'll hit it with a steroid injection. Hmmmm..... Then I suppose they'll amputate. Remember, this all began just to remove a wart that was kind of a nuisance.
Caught in the Middle |
My intention of continuing some painting projects was partially realized before the rains came. Paint on the concrete block foundation in the front had bubbled and blistered, so I scraped all the loose stuff off, then primed it with a high-quality undercoat that should help the paint adhere better, then repainted. It certainly looks better and should last longer. When the weather cooperates I've got a wooden bench that needs re-staining and some sections of our lanai railings that need repainting, plus it's time to recoat our driveway. I do this every 3-5 years with a special concrete paint that not only makes the driveway look nice, it keeps down the mold and mildew that used to form on it. This isn't as big a job as it sounds because I get my handyman to help and we use long rollers that makes it go fast. The hardest part is pressure washing the driveway first, then getting the paint on before the birds poop on it.
Ok, that's the weekly report. Take care. Only a couple more months of this fun winter weather to go!
[Note: This is another blog based on my weekly emails to my family on the mainland.]
2/11/23
Aloha Everyone!
As your mainland winter lurches on with its Atmospheric Rivers, Cyclone Bombs, and Polar Vortex's, the weather here has been sunnier and drier, so the pool solar heating system has been able to get the water back up to a reasonable temperature. We've been able to do our daily workouts several times this week, and after the initial shock when you first get in, it hasn't been too bad. The vog has been much better, too. The volcano is still spewing, but the trade winds have returned and strengthened enough so that the volcanic gasses are blown farther eastward before the wind turns to the north, and this extra distance keeps it from getting trapped along our coast. If you want to see the peculiar pattern of our winds, here's a link to an interesting website: https://www.windy.com/19.642/-155.997?19.051,-155.997,8 .
I finished re-staining the lanai around our upper guest quarters. It looks much better, though it's one of those projects where the successful outcome is just the disappearance of a problem -- if you didn't see it before you wouldn't notice anything. Anyway, the project is done and now I'm going to move on to some other painting that is due -- house maintenance never ends. Oh, one problem that may have taken care of itself is the solar lighting on the umbrella that blew into the pool. I thought I was going to have to buy a replacement solar panel/battery for it, but it suddenly has begun working again. This isn't a sure thing, though, because after an initial return the lights futzed out for a day, but then came back and so far have stayed ok. I'm hoping it was simply a matter of drying out slowly and now it is back to normal. I sure like it when things fix themselves.
I may have mentioned that our house is adjacent on one side to an undeveloped strip of land. This attracts a number of animals and birds, including the endangered Hawaiian owl (the Pueo), and
Picking Breakfast |
the endangered Hawaiian Hawk (the Io). Both are endemic to Hawai'i, and it is quite a treat to see them flying over our neighborhood. There aren't too many small mammals for them to prey on (remember, there were no mice or rats here until humans arrived), and their primary source of food is other birds. They've both become rather fond of the introduced doves that are abundant in the area. The other morning we saw an Io perched on the street power line as we went on our daily walk around the neighborhood. He was surveying a grand buffet of doves in a driveway where a woman feeds them. She's managed to attract at least 100 daily freeloaders, much to the delight of the hawk, I'm sure. In other environments there are natural controls on the numbers of doves, but not here. The native hawk is actually serving to help control an introduced species in this case.
On Wednesday we attended a memorial service for the husband of a woman who is a member of a women's club that Karen also belongs to. He was quite a guy, and we both liked him very much. He was quiet and unassuming, yet he had a remarkable history. He was a fighter pilot during the Vietnam War until his plane crashed and he spent a year in the hospital recovering from burns and other injuries. His flying career was over, of course, but he continued in the Navy as an intelligence officer in the NCIS. Although he suffered from dementia at the end, he remained pleasant and upbeat. Sure seems to be a lot of this dying stuff going on lately.......
Karen and I played 18 holes at Makalei on Thursday. I did ok again, getting a couple of bogeys and a par, and once again I had some rather nice shots, though rarely on the same hole. We did manage to finish all 18 holes, but the last few were a real challenge --when you're a duffer, you work much harder and it takes longer. My reward afterward was a dip in the pool, a nap, and a beer. We saw only peacocks this time. The Nenes have migrated to someplace else on the island. They don't do any long distance migrating like the mainland variety of geese -- they know a good thing when they see it.
Ok, that's it for this week. Take care. Stay warm. Stay safe. Stay happy.
As I pointed out in an earlier blog (The Power of Negative Thinking) , a central finding from research in my field of Social Psychology is ...